Where are we in the Financial Markets...

I hate to say this, but the retail investor or "everyday consumer" has been giving many signals or signs that we are in alot of pain with respects to the Financial Markets. And as a result, there has been a tremendous amount of capital taken out of the market with the closing out of many funds, stocks, positions, etc....

When you look at all the global markets, they are down at least 40% this year as investors seem to have resigned to the fact that there is a global economic slowdown. With this resignation I am here to shed some light on some positive outlooks:

-Governments are reacting to these market reactions and are putting their best foot forward to try and accomodate the current environment. Is it the right entrance and stance...that is for another day.

-Commodity Prices are waaaaaaaay down

-Warren Buffett and some other high flying investors are really putting some large amounts of capital behind some top American brands. With that said, this is a very positive inflow of capital, but keep in mind..investors such as Warren are receiving some pretty efficient warrant positions that are "in the money" at the time of their investment, so the downside risk for these large institutional investors is not as great as you may think initially.

-Historical Perspective to Pay Close Attention To: The S&P trades 25% below its 50-day moving average, which has happened just five times since 1928, all resulting in a rally.

As a result of this metric, look for cash rich companies like Mosaic, Microsoft, Citibank, and Wells Fargo!

Thats all for today folks! See you tomorrow!

VentureGuy

Wall Street Rewards

As many of us continue to watch and explore how uncertain the financial markets may look recently, I think the markets are reacting to more emotion than anything. With the overall market segments in general swaying in deep accelerations and declines (more declines)...it stands to show that the "non banking" financials really accelerated an across the board decline in the overall stock market. With non banking being the banks with large exposures to the collateralized mortgage markets, and hence a non banking product. The exposure within financial services has really just proven who the firms and people were that made the wrong bet on the mortgage market above all else.

What does this all mean? There may be some rewards buried in this insecure market that is being driven by emotion and the baby boomer generation maybe pushing the panic button a bit too soon. Here are some stocks that I think can be placed into a category of being pure winners in the next 3-5 years. They are very large and trusted names that would certainly beg to question how close to book value their stock price will come to as the efficient pricing has taken effect over the last 90 days.

#1) Citibank (C)...Currently trading around $12.50
Analysis: Home Run....This stock should never be down this low to start with, and certainly begs to make a long run upwards as they have a fresh infusion of cash from overseas. The only exposure or negative on C, is the exposure to the potential credit card spread that will widen as consumers start to default on credit card payments. C has a pretty large credit card business.

#2) Wells Fargo (WFC)...Currently trading around $31
Analysis: Strong ...Steady..Leader. Wells Fargo as we all know by now is in the process of acquiring Wachovia, which in the end would give the bank over $1 TRILLION dollars under management when complete. This is aside from the very positive news that they have already paid back the government the funds that were lent to them as part of the bailout package. They reissued stock in the market and raised the funds to pay the government back. Smart move and shows that the decline in their stock was due to the issuance of stock and the current trading price of $30 is very efficient with a run over the next couple years making it look to the $40's and 50's without question. Just make sure they really look under the covers at Wachovia. There could be some serious monsters lurking in the form of bad loans...

#3) Mosaic (MOS)... is one of the world’s largest makers of phosphate and potash crop nutrients. More than two-thirds of the company’s business comes from outside of the United States. The company was formed when IMC Global and Cargill’s former crop nutrition unit merged in 2004.
The company posted double-digit earnings surprises for all four quarters in the last year and it is expecting revenue to double in the third quarter. I expected phenomenal earnings again when Mosaic’s quarterly report came out on October 3rd, so make sure you start taking a look at it.
The stock has pulled back recently despite its strong quarterly report. This company beat Wall Street expectations by 17.7% after it beat last year's numbers by four times over! Mosaic has put up great numbers, and is a great buy with a lot of success in its future. Currently trading at $27.78. It is a deal in the sense that its 52week high was at $163 and hit a bottom at 27 per share in October. I like this one as a stock to watch and certainly has some upside.

I hope this gives a brief simple look at the recent turmoil and some good outlooks for some publicly traded stocks that might make you some money in the coming years.

Best,
VentureGuy

Welcome to Emerging Ventures

Will be putting the inaugural posting up regarding the current market environment and what is in store for some transactions coming around the corner in 2009. From the venture capital side of things as well as from the leveraged buyout front.

I will also introduce my top picks for 2009 in the publicly traded arena...(Hint: You have to believe there was a bottom in Non Bank Financials, while also incorporating some traditionally strong fundamentals that fell victim to an emotional selloff!!)

Best,
Venture Guy